Nifty Above 24,600 for First Time; Nifty Prediction for Tomorrow

Nifty Prediction for Tomorrow

Indian Stock Market Poised for Consolidation: Experts Analyze Gains and Potential Moves

Market Recap: July 16th

Indian stock markets closed with a modest gain on July 16th, marking their third consecutive winning session. The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, finished the day slightly higher, despite some initial volatility. This positive trend was driven by specific sectors, while others experienced corrections.

Realty and FMCG Sectors Lead the Charge

The biggest gainers on the Nifty were companies in the Realty and FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods) sectors. Coal India, BPCL, HUL (Hindustan Unilever), Tata Consumer Products, and Bharti Airtel all saw significant increases. This suggests investor confidence in these sectors and their potential for growth.

Profit Booking Dampens Pharma Enthusiasm

While the overall market sentiment was positive, the Pharma sector witnessed a correction due to profit booking.

Investors who had purchased stocks earlier in anticipation of gains may have decided to sell their holdings to secure their profits. This profit booking caused a temporary decline in Pharma stock prices.

Sectoral Performance: A Mixed Bag

Looking beyond individual stocks, the sectoral indices presented a mixed picture. The Realty index shone the brightest, registering a gain exceeding 1%. FMCG, IT, Metal, and Telecom followed suit with gains ranging from 0.3% to 0.9%.

However, the Media index bucked the trend, experiencing a 1% decline. Additionally, the Power and Capital Goods indices witnessed moderate losses of around 0.5%.

Mid and Small Caps Show Resilience

Despite a sluggish performance by the broader mid-cap and small-cap indices, there was evidence of selective buying in specific stocks within these segments.

This indicates that investors are still finding opportunities outside the large-cap space, suggesting a diversified market focus.

Analyst Insights: Navigating the Coming Days

Several market experts weighed in on the potential direction of the market in the coming days:

• Aditya Gaggar, Progressive Shares: Nifty traded within a narrow range of 24,600-24,650 on July 16th before closing at 24,613, a gain of 26.30 points. He noted that Realty emerged as the top gainer, followed by FMCG and IT. Conversely, Media experienced the most significant decline, while profit booking impacted the Pharma sector. Despite muted performance in mid and small caps, selective buying activity suggested continued investor interest. Mr. Gaggar highlighted the formation of continuous Doji candles at record levels, indicating potential weakness at higher price points. However, he observed an upward shift in support levels with each passing day, with immediate support for Nifty placed around 24,500.

• Vinod Nair, Geojit Financial Services: Mr. Nair attributed the market’s inability to sustain initial gains to investor concerns regarding current valuations and anticipated weak corporate results for the first quarter of FY 2025. As the earnings season kicks into full swing this week, investor sentiment may be influenced by company performance and its impact on the broader economy. Additionally, recent dovish comments from the FED Chairman regarding global inflation and a decline in the US 10-year yield ahead of US retail sales data have raised the possibility of interest rate cuts in September. This could potentially provide a positive boost to the Indian market.

• Jatin Gedia, Sharekhan: Mr. Gedia pointed out that Nifty opened positively but consolidated throughout the day before closing with a marginal gain of 20 points. He observed a potential move towards 24,840 points for Nifty on the daily chart. However, he identified signs of slowing momentum on the hourly chart, with a negative crossover in the Hourly Momentum Indicator and shrinking Bollinger Bands. This suggests a potential consolidation phase in the coming trading sessions, with a likely range of 24,700 – 24,500.

Bank Nifty: Finding Support

Jatin Gedia also commented on the performance of Bank Nifty. He noted that the Bank Nifty consolidated and closed around the support of its 20-day moving average.

He expressed confidence in Bank Nifty’s ability to maintain this support and projected a potential move towards 52,800 – 53,000 in the next few trading sessions. Major support for Bank Nifty was identified at 52,100 – 51,900.

Final Remarks: A Week of Opportunities

With the earnings season kicking off and global economic factors at play, the coming week promises to be an eventful one for the Indian stock market. While consolidation seems likely in the near term, the potential for further gains remains.

Investors are advised to closely monitor company earnings reports, global economic news, and expert analyses to make informed investment decisions.