Sensex Down 1,190 Points. Nifty at 23,914; Tomorrow Nifty Prediction
Tomorrow Nifty Prediction
Profit Booking on Expiry Day: Market Prediction for November 29
On November 28, Indian stock markets saw significant profit booking, particularly on the expiry day of derivatives contracts.
The benchmark indices—Sensex and Nifty—ended the day sharply lower, with the market retreating about 1.5%. This profit booking was evident across several key sectors, including Information Technology (IT), automotive, and banking stocks, all of which faced substantial selling pressure.
At the same time, energy, PSU (Public Sector Undertaking) stocks, and the FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) sector also closed in the negative, reflecting a broader market decline.
However, a noteworthy anomaly was observed in the PSU bank space, where the index posted gains despite the overall market weakness.
Meanwhile, midcap and smallcap stocks, which had been outperforming in recent sessions, slipped from their highs and ended lower, indicating the profit-taking trend was not limited to the large-cap stocks.
Market Closing Details:
- Sensex: The Sensex closed at 79,044, down by 1,190 points or approximately 1.5%.
- Nifty: The Nifty index ended the session at 23,914, marking a decline of 361 points, or 1.5%.
- Nifty Bank: The Nifty Bank index closed 395 points lower at 51,907.
- Midcap: Despite the broader market decline, the Midcap index closed marginally higher, gaining 28 points to end at 56,301.
- Rupee: The Indian rupee closed at 84.49 per dollar, down by 4 paise from the previous day’s close.
The overall market breadth was negative, with 29 out of the 30 Sensex stocks and 46 out of the 50 Nifty stocks closing lower.
Additionally, 7 out of the 12 Nifty Bank stocks also declined, underlining the breadth of the sell-off.
However, the decline was more pronounced in index-heavy stocks, while midcaps and smallcaps managed to hold up relatively better.
Sectoral Performance:
- IT Sector: The IT sector, which has been a key performer in recent months, saw significant losses today. Major IT stocks, including Infosys, TCS, and Wipro, were among the worst performers.
- Automobile and Banking Stocks: Both the automobile and banking sectors saw considerable selling, which contributed to the market’s overall decline. However, it’s worth noting that the PSU banking stocks bucked the trend and ended higher, which helped cushion some of the broader market weakness.
- Energy and FMCG: These sectors also closed in the negative, but the decline was less severe compared to the broader market, reflecting the defensive nature of these sectors.
- Midcap and Smallcap: The midcap and smallcap stocks showed resilience and outperformed the large-cap indices. These segments had gained traction in recent days, and while they did close lower today, their performance was relatively better compared to the large-cap indices.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook for November 29:
The selling pressure on November 28 came after a period of consolidation, marking the expiry day of futures and options contracts.
According to Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, the Nifty index opened flat, but after that, a sharp sell-off was seen, and it closed down by 361 points.
The consolidation phase that had been in place over the past three trading sessions was broken today, and the gap zone formed on November 25 between the 23,950 and 24,150 levels was filled.
From a technical standpoint, Gedia suggests that important retracement levels are seen between 23,935 and 23,807, which could act as a strong support zone in the short term.
If these levels hold, the market could see a potential resumption of the uptrend, with the Nifty expected to target levels around 24,400.
Despite the profit booking today, the overall trend remains positive, and Gedia suggests that the market may bounce back towards the upper range of the recent consolidation.
For Bank Nifty, Gedia points out that although the index broke out of its consolidation range earlier in the day, it ended in the red, down 395 points.
The index is still holding on to its important Overly Moving Average of 51,800, which is likely to act as a strong support in the near term.
Additionally, the gap zone between 51,200 and 51,800 is considered an important support zone. This suggests that the current decline is unlikely to signal the start of a major downward trend, and the Bank Nifty may continue to trade within this range in the short term.
Market Sentiment and Broader Trends:
Aditya Gaggar, Director at Progressive Shares, mentioned that the Nifty did manage to break the 24,140-24,350 range during the day, but this uptrend could not be sustained.
The decline, according to Gaggar, was primarily limited to the index heavyweights, with mid and small-cap stocks outperforming.
This suggests that the profit booking was largely concentrated in the large-cap space, and the broader market remained relatively resilient.
On the daily chart, Gaggar notes that the Nifty formed a bearish candle, indicating short-term weakness.
However, it seems to be forming the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is generally a bullish reversal pattern.
A strong close above the 24,350 level could confirm the pattern breakout and signal a potential continuation of the uptrend.
For now, Gaggar suggests that the immediate resistance for Nifty is at 24,140, and support is at 23,760. A decisive breakout above resistance levels could set the stage for further gains in the market.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Nifty Support Levels:
- 23,935 – 23,807
- Immediate support is at 23,760.
Resistance Levels:
- 24,140 – 24,400
- A decisive close above 24,350 will signal a breakout.
- Bank Nifty Support Levels:
- 51,200 – 51,800
- Immediate support is seen at the 51,800 level.
Resistance Levels:
- A break above 52,000 would signal the potential for further upside.
Final Remarks
The markets witnessed significant profit booking on the expiry day of November contracts, with the Sensex and Nifty indices closing sharply lower.
However, this decline was largely driven by index-heavy stocks, while mid and small-cap stocks showed relative strength.
Despite the short-term weakness, the overall trend for both Nifty and Bank Nifty remains positive, with key support levels likely to hold in the near term.
Traders should closely monitor the important support and resistance levels in the coming days. If the Nifty manages to close above 24,350, it could confirm the resumption of the uptrend, targeting the 24,400 mark.
Similarly, Bank Nifty may find support near 51,800, with potential upside beyond 52,000 if the trend continues.
