Sensex Gain 1,310 Points, Nifty at 22,828; Nifty Prediction for Monday

Nifty Prediction for Monday

Market Closes with Strength: What to Expect on April 15, 2025

The Indian stock market ended the trading session on April 11 with a strong showing, closing with significant gains.

The Nifty index saw a notable surge, pushing past key technical levels and closing near its highest point of the day, which has investors speculating on its future movements.

With the Nifty facing resistance at its 21-EMA on the daily time frame, the upcoming week will be crucial in determining whether this bullish momentum can continue.

Market Performance on April 11, 2025

Nifty maintained a firm foothold above the 22,800 level on April 11, which played a key role in its closing performance.

Both the Sensex and the Nifty posted impressive gains, closing with solid positive percentages, suggesting that domestic factors were driving market strength.

• Sensex surged by 1,310.11 points or 1.77%, closing at 75,157.26.
• Nifty gained 429.40 points or 1.92%, ending the session at 22,828.55.

This was a strong recovery after several days of uncertainty, with the breadth of the market also reflecting positive sentiment. A total of 3,006 stocks advanced, compared to 807 decliners and 110 stocks unchanged.

Sectoral Performance: Broad-based Gains Across the Board

All major sectoral indices finished the day in the green, highlighting the widespread optimism in the market.

Among the most notable performers was the metal sector, which surged by 4%, bolstered by rising commodity prices and strong earnings from top companies like Hindalco and Tata Steel. Other sectors also posted solid gains, including:

• Auto, Oil & Gas, Power, PSU, Telecom, and Pharma, each rising by around 2%.
• The BSE Midcap Index gained 1.8%, while the BSE Smallcap Index rose by an even stronger 3%, reflecting the broad-based market rally.

Despite the impressive performance, the day’s gains were primarily driven by a handful of large-cap stocks, particularly those in the metals and steel industries.

Weekly Market Overview

Although the market saw a strong finish on April 11, the week overall was a mixed bag. On a weekly basis, the Nifty, Sensex, and midcap indices recorded slight losses, falling by about 0.3%, while the Nifty Bank index dropped by nearly 1%.

However, the sharp 2% rally on Friday helped recover much of the earlier losses, leaving the markets in a better position to start the following week.

Sector performance showed a divergence in results, with IT, metal, and realty sectors being the worst performers, falling between 2-4%.

These sectors were under pressure due to concerns over global growth and softer-than-expected earnings from major IT companies like TCS. On the other hand, the PSU and FMCG sectors were the top performers, with these indices gaining between 2-4% over the week.

This suggests that defensive sectors like FMCG and government-owned enterprises were able to outperform, likely due to their stability in uncertain market conditions.

Market Holidays and Impact on Trading

Next week promises to be a shorter trading week, with Indian stock markets open for only three days due to two major public holidays.

These closures will significantly affect market activity and may lead to lower volumes and higher volatility on the days when markets are open. The market holidays are as follows:

• Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti on April 14.
• Good Friday on April 18.

Given that no trading will occur on these days, all types of derivatives, equity, SLB (Securities Lending and Borrowing), currency derivatives, and interest rate derivatives will be suspended for two days next week.

The market has already observed one holiday on April 10 for Shri Mahavir Jayanti, which will bring the total number of stock market holidays in April 2025 to three.

These holiday breaks often lead to reduced liquidity and can sometimes lead to heightened volatility when markets reopen, as there is less trading volume and a greater chance for technical patterns to shift rapidly.

Market Prediction for April 15, 2025: Key Levels and Market Sentiment

Looking ahead to April 15, much of the market’s movement will depend on technical levels and broader economic factors.

As of April 11, Nifty is positioned just below critical resistance at the 23,000 level, and how it behaves at this level could determine the direction in the short term.

Rupak Dey, a technical analyst at LKP Securities, explains that the Nifty is currently facing resistance around the 21-EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the daily time frame.

The index closed at its highest point for the day on April 11, which indicates a potential breakout, but the key resistance remains at 23,000. Until Nifty decisively crosses this threshold, the index will likely remain in a bearish posture.

• Immediate resistance is at 23,000.
• If Nifty clears this level, it could target the next resistance at 23,500.
• On the downside, Nifty has support at 22,750, and if this level is breached, weakness could intensify.

Moreover, Dey points to the positive divergence in the RSI (Relative Strength Index), which could signal a reversal in the trend.

A positive divergence typically indicates that the underlying momentum is improving, even if the price is not yet reflecting it, which could support further upside potential.

Vinod Nair, Research Head at Geojit Investments, offers a broader view on the market by commenting on the global macroeconomic conditions.

While the US’s decision to ease reciprocal tariffs brought relief to global markets, the recent earnings report from TCS came in weaker than expected, dampening sentiment in the IT sector.

Despite this, TCS remains optimistic about the second half of FY 2026, citing growth in its order book and the potential for improved performance in the coming months.

Nair also highlights that positive developments in bilateral trade talks could further benefit export-oriented sectors, especially if there is a resolution to trade tensions between India and key international partners.

Furthermore, interest rate cuts and softening inflation could provide long-term investment opportunities, particularly in domestic-focused sectors that are sensitive to consumer demand.

Key Levels to Watch on April 15, 2025

• Resistance: 23,000 – A critical level for determining the market’s next move. A sustained move above this level could push Nifty towards 23,500.
• Support: 22,750 – This is a key support level, and if breached, it could lead to increased selling pressure.
• RSI Divergence: A positive divergence in RSI suggests that the market may have upside potential despite facing resistance.

Final Remarks

As the market looks ahead to April 15, traders and investors should focus on the key technical levels of 22,750 and 23,000.

While global factors such as the US trade relief and a softening domestic inflationary environment support market optimism, the Nifty’s ability to break above 23,000 will be the deciding factor in whether the current bullish trend will continue or if weakness will prevail.

With April 15 marking the beginning of a shortened trading week, volatility may rise, so traders should proceed cautiously and stay aware of any significant developments in global markets and domestic economic conditions.